AFLW · ROUND 5 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 32.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | FF | 1.5 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 100% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Austin | CHF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FPR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 23% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | RR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 21% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Julia Teakle | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 42% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Window | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Elkington | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Parsons | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Crane | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |