AFLW · ROUND 5 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 19
MEL to win, 79% chance
MEL 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 32.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.2 | 2.7 to 11.7 | 96% | 88% | 78% | 70% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | C | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 37% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 57% | 46% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kate Hore | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Laela Ebert | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Austin | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Moloney | R | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Elkington | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Piper Window | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 8% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Parsons | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 45% | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 29% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Olivia Crane | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Teakle | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |