AFLW · ROUND 5 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Carlton
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 30
NM to win, 89% chance
NM 89%11% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 19.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 30.4 | 26.3 to 34.5 | 20.4 to 40.4 | 100% | 96% | 83% | 56% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 30.2 | 26.2 to 34.3 | 20.2 to 40.2 | 100% | 96% | 83% | 55% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.8 to 25.8 | 72% | 32% | 10% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 13.8 | 10.8 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Emma King | FPR | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | CHF | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mimi Hill | RR | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.8 | 14.3 to 32.1 | 95% | 76% | 40% | 13% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.3 | 12.3 to 29.4 | 90% | 61% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.9 | 87% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFR | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.7 | 64% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | CHF | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 4.9 | 3.0 to 6.9 | 0.1 to 9.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |