AFLW · ROUND 5 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Carlton
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 30
NM to win, 89% chance
NM 89%11% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 19.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 114 | 98 to 130 | 75 to 153 | 98% | 93% | 84% | 72% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 118 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 111 | 95 to 127 | 72 to 150 | 97% | 91% | 81% | 68% | 50% | inside our 50% range: 122 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 36% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 63 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Blaithin Bogue | INT | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Emma King | FPR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | CHF | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mimi Hill | RR | 80 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 69% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 47% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 128 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 99 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 70 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
| Tara Bohanna | CHF | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 25 | 16 to 35 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |