AFLW · ROUND 5 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Carlton
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 30
NM to win, 89% chance
NM 89%11% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 19.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | C | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 74% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Eddey | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 64% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 18% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claire Mahony | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Kearney | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | FPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 84% | 69% | 53% | 35% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.0 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lila Keck | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |