AFLW · ROUND 5 · WINDY HILL
Richmond v St Kilda
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
RIC by 3
RIC to win, 56% chance
RIC 56%44% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.9 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | FPR | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | INT | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 19.1 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 16.3 | 13.1 to 19.4 | 8.6 to 24.0 | 63% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | C | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.2 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 5.6 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |