AFLW · ROUND 5 · WINDY HILL
Richmond v St Kilda
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
RIC by 3
RIC to win, 56% chance
RIC 56%44% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 54 to 126 | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 59 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Dana East | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Georgia Stubs | FPR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 82 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Georgia Patrikios | INT | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 42% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 118 |
| Olivia Vesely | C | 54 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8 |