AFLW · ROUND 5 · WINDY HILL
Richmond v St Kilda
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
RIC by 3
RIC to win, 56% chance
RIC 56%44% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 40% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |