AFLW · ROUND 5 · WINDY HILL
Richmond v St Kilda
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
RIC by 3
RIC to win, 56% chance
RIC 56%44% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | FPR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 33% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | C | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |