AFLW · ROUND 5 · WINDY HILL
Richmond v St Kilda
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
RIC by 3
RIC to win, 56% chance
RIC 56%44% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 78% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | WL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 47% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 61% | 38% | 24% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 45% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 74% | 56% | 47% | 31% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | C | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 42% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alana Gee | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 59% | 38% | 24% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly McDonald | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nicola Barr | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 47% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |