AFLW · ROUND 5 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 22
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | R | 27.3 | 23.5 to 31.2 | 17.8 to 36.9 | 98% | 92% | 69% | 36% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.0 | 12.1 to 29.1 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 20.5 | 17.1 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Montana Ham | C | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.3 | 79% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.8 | 62% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 57% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | HBFR | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | CHB | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jas Grierson | FB | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | HFFR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | RK | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Holly Cooper | FPR | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 25.3 | 21.5 to 29.0 | 16.0 to 34.5 | 96% | 84% | 55% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.5 to 29.7 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | FPR | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 42% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alicia Eva | WR | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 5.3 | 3.3 to 7.4 | 0.3 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |