AFLW · ROUND 5 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 22
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | R | 111 | 95 to 127 | 73 to 150 | 97% | 92% | 81% | 69% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 87 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 48% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Montana Ham | C | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 68 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 100 |
| Lucy McEvoy | HBFR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 30 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Lara Hausegger | CHB | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Maddie Quinn | RK | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Sarah Grunden | HFFR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Holly Cooper | FPR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Jas Grierson | FB | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 76 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 92 | 77 to 106 | 56 to 128 | 83% | 71% | 52% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | FPR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 64 | 50 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Alicia Eva | WR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Grace Kos | R | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |