AFLW · ROUND 5 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 22
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 40% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Cooper | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Ham | C | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 56% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 55% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jas Grierson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni Evans | FF | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alicia Eva | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alyce Parker | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |