AFLW · ROUND 5 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 22
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Montana Ham | C | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | R | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 25% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jas Grierson | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Cooper | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | RK | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alyce Parker | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 8% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alicia Eva | WR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |