AFLW · ROUND 5 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 22
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | R | 8.0 | 5.9 to 10.2 | 3.3 to 12.8 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 74% | 65% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | RR | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Montana Ham | C | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | HBFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Holly Cooper | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 26% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jas Grierson | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alyce Parker | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alicia Eva | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 55% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 45% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 43% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 22% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Clark | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Martin | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |