AFLW · ROUND 5 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 31
BRI to win, 89% chance
WCE 11%89% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 35.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 25.0 | 21.2 to 28.7 | 15.8 to 34.2 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 19.5 | 16.2 to 22.9 | 11.2 to 27.8 | 82% | 46% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.1 | 9.1 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | WR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | HFFL | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sienna Gerardi | C | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 22.2 | 18.7 to 25.8 | 13.5 to 31.0 | 93% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 19.8 | 16.5 to 23.2 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | C | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | INT | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 10.0 to 26.1 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Sophie Conway | FF | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.9 to 26.0 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 65% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HFFL | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Claudia Wright | FPR | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |