AFLW · ROUND 5 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 31
BRI to win, 89% chance
WCE 11%89% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 35.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 98 | 83 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 90% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 139 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 64 | 51 to 77 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 35% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Abbygail Bushby | WR | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 83 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | HFFL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Sienna Gerardi | C | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: -1 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 34 | 23 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 55 to 127 | 83% | 70% | 51% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Alexandra Anderson | INT | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Charlotte Mullins | C | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Sophie Conway | FF | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Sophie Peters | HFFL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Eleanor Hartill | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Claudia Wright | FPR | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |