AFLW · ROUND 5 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 31
BRI to win, 89% chance
WCE 11%89% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 35.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 48% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ella Roberts | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 47% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 48% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sienna Gerardi | C | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 3.8 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.5 | 60% | 46% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 49% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 24% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Conway | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claudia Wright | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |