AFLW · ROUND 5 · MINERAL RESOURCES PARK
West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 31
BRI to win, 89% chance
WCE 11%89% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 5
MISS Actual margin 5 · 35.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.3 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 72% | 61% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sienna Gerardi | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 64% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | WR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Svarc | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 91% | 80% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Conway | FF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 21% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 30% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Wright | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |