AFLW · ROUND 6 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
BRI 53%47% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
MISS Actual margin 9 · 10.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 24.0 | 20.4 to 27.7 | 15.0 to 33.1 | 96% | 80% | 45% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 50% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 6.3 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 5.5 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 27.5 | 23.6 to 31.4 | 17.9 to 37.2 | 98% | 92% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 21.9 | 18.4 to 25.5 | 13.2 to 30.7 | 92% | 68% | 30% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.6 | 17.2 to 24.1 | 12.1 to 29.1 | 88% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 68% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 48% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |