AFLW · ROUND 6 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
BRI 53%47% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
MISS Actual margin 9 · 10.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 88 | 74 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 45% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 138 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 86 | 71 to 100 | 51 to 121 | 78% | 60% | 40% | 25% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 74 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 10 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 57 |
| Evie Long | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 120 | 104 to 137 | 80 to 160 | 99% | 96% | 89% | 80% | 66% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 42% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 81 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |