AFLW · ROUND 6 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
BRI 53%47% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
MISS Actual margin 9 · 10.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 82% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |