AFLW · ROUND 6 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
BRI 53%47% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 9
MISS Actual margin 9 · 10.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 58% | 49% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 75% | 60% | 49% | 32% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 27% | 11% | 6% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 23% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.3 | 4.0 to 14.1 | 100% | 97% | 91% | 84% | 74% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 70% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |