AFLW · ROUND 6 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 26
GEE to win, 86% chance
COL 14%86% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
HIT Actual margin 41 · 15.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.4 to 29.6 | 90% | 62% | 24% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 19.3 | 16.0 to 22.7 | 11.0 to 27.6 | 81% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 74% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 13.9 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 5.4 | 3.3 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 27.8 | 23.9 to 31.7 | 18.1 to 37.4 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 38% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 25.2 | 21.5 to 29.0 | 16.0 to 34.5 | 96% | 84% | 55% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 22.5 | 19.0 to 26.1 | 13.7 to 31.4 | 93% | 72% | 35% | 11% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 20.5 | 17.1 to 24.0 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 13.9 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |