AFLW · ROUND 6 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 26
GEE to win, 86% chance
COL 14%86% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
HIT Actual margin 41 · 15.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 36% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 1.9 | 1.3 to 2.4 | 0.1 to 3.7 | 100% | 57% | 30% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 0.9 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 62% | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 40% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |