AFLW · ROUND 6 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 26
GEE to win, 86% chance
COL 14%86% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
HIT Actual margin 41 · 15.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.5 | 60% | 46% | 26% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.4 | 60% | 46% | 25% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 33% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.1 to 7.2 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 48% | 29% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 47% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 47% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |