AFLW · ROUND 6 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 26
GEE to win, 86% chance
COL 14%86% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
HIT Actual margin 41 · 15.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 5.4 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 46% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 33% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.4 to 11.2 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kate Surman | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 44% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annie Lee | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Renee Morgan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |