AFLW · ROUND 6 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ESS by 4
ESS to win, 58% chance
ESS 58%42% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 45.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 27.1 | 23.2 to 30.9 | 17.5 to 36.6 | 98% | 90% | 67% | 34% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 38.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 11.2 to 27.8 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 15.1 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 13.5 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 28.8 | 24.8 to 32.8 | 19.0 to 38.6 | 99% | 94% | 77% | 45% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.4 to 31.0 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 11.2 to 27.8 | 82% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.5 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Georja Davies | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |