AFLW · ROUND 6 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ESS by 4
ESS to win, 58% chance
ESS 58%42% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 45.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 96 | 81 to 111 | 59 to 133 | 88% | 77% | 60% | 41% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 127 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 42% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 41 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 103 | 87 to 118 | 65 to 140 | 93% | 84% | 71% | 54% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 79 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 48% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 37 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Georja Davies | INT | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Paige Price | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12 |