AFLW · ROUND 6 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ESS by 4
ESS to win, 58% chance
ESS 58%42% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 45.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 60% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 39% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 43% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 10% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 33% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 7.1 | 5.1 to 9.2 | 2.6 to 11.6 | 96% | 88% | 77% | 69% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 74% | 56% | 47% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 52% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 9% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georja Davies | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 44% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |