AFLW · ROUND 6 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 61% chance
FRE 61%39% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 10
MISS Actual margin 10 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.3 | 14.6 to 32.7 | 96% | 78% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 22.9 | 19.3 to 26.5 | 14.0 to 31.7 | 94% | 73% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 11.2 to 27.8 | 82% | 45% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 17.7 | 14.5 to 20.9 | 9.7 to 25.7 | 71% | 31% | 9% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 23.3 | 19.6 to 26.9 | 14.3 to 32.2 | 95% | 76% | 41% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 28.9 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 10.0 to 26.1 | 74% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 15.1 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Louise Stephenson | INT | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |