AFLW · ROUND 6 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 61% chance
FRE 61%39% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 10
MISS Actual margin 10 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.6 | 4.8 to 15.5 | 100% | 100% | 96% | 91% | 84% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 78% | 68% | 53% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 69% | 52% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 59% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 47% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 33% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 47% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 21% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Louise Stephenson | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |