AFLW · ROUND 6 · CAZALYS STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 5:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
NM by 37
NM to win, 93% chance
HAW 7%93% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 7
MISS Actual margin 7 · 44.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.5 | 19.9 to 27.2 | 14.6 to 32.5 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 86% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 66% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Najwa Allen | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 32.2 | 28.0 to 36.4 | 21.9 to 42.5 | 100% | 97% | 90% | 67% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 30.8 | 26.8 to 34.9 | 20.7 to 40.9 | 100% | 96% | 84% | 59% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.8 | 12.7 to 29.9 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.3 to 27.9 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.9 to 24.5 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |