AFLW · ROUND 6 · CAZALYS STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 5:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
NM by 37
NM to win, 93% chance
HAW 7%93% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 7
MISS Actual margin 7 · 44.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 92 | 77 to 107 | 56 to 128 | 84% | 71% | 52% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Eliza West | R | 86 | 71 to 100 | 51 to 121 | 78% | 60% | 40% | 25% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 27 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Najwa Allen | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 115 | 99 to 132 | 76 to 154 | 98% | 94% | 85% | 74% | 58% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 113 | 97 to 130 | 74 to 152 | 98% | 92% | 83% | 71% | 54% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 89 | 74 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 67% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 72 | 58 to 85 | 39 to 104 | 53% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 17% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Emma King | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |