AFLW · ROUND 6 · CAZALYS STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 5:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
NM by 37
NM to win, 93% chance
HAW 7%93% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 7
MISS Actual margin 7 · 44.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Najwa Allen | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 0.9 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 62% | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |