AFLW · ROUND 6 · CAZALYS STADIUM
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 5:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
NM by 37
NM to win, 93% chance
HAW 7%93% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 7
MISS Actual margin 7 · 44.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 70% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Najwa Allen | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 7.4 | 5.4 to 9.5 | 2.9 to 12.0 | 96% | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 46% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 9% | 5% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |