AFLW · ROUND 6 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 61% chance
MEL 61%39% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 27.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 29.3 | 25.3 to 33.3 | 19.4 to 39.2 | 99% | 95% | 79% | 48% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.7 | 13.4 to 31.0 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.1 | 68% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 22.8 | 19.2 to 26.4 | 13.9 to 31.7 | 94% | 73% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 22.6 | 19.1 to 26.2 | 13.8 to 31.5 | 94% | 72% | 36% | 11% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 21.9 | 18.4 to 25.4 | 13.2 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.6 | 11.8 to 28.6 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.5 | 10.2 to 26.3 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 5.4 | 3.3 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |