AFLW · ROUND 6 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 61% chance
MEL 61%39% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 27.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 98 | 83 to 113 | 61 to 135 | 90% | 79% | 63% | 45% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Kate Hore | C | 89 | 74 to 104 | 53 to 124 | 81% | 66% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 29% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 82 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 82 | 68 to 96 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 76 | 62 to 90 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 41 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 74 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 65 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 54 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |