AFLW · ROUND 6 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 61% chance
MEL 61%39% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 27.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | C | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 29% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 56% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 55% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 40% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 56% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 23% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 60% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 50% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |