AFLW · ROUND 6 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 61% chance
MEL 61%39% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 27.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 3.3 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 47% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 33% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 3.8 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.5 | 60% | 46% | 28% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.1 to 7.3 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |