AFLW · ROUND 6 · CASEY FIELDS
Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 61% chance
MEL 61%39% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 27.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 48% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 19% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 39% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 28% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 36% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |