AFLW · ROUND 6 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 5
SYD to win, 59% chance
PA 41%59% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.3 | 79% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 13.9 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 6.4 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 24.3 | 20.6 to 28.0 | 15.2 to 33.4 | 96% | 81% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 85% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 86% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 16.7 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.5 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 53% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |