AFLW · ROUND 6 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 5
SYD to win, 59% chance
PA 41%59% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 96 | 81 to 112 | 60 to 133 | 88% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 86 | 71 to 100 | 51 to 121 | 78% | 60% | 40% | 25% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 135 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 58 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 92 | 77 to 107 | 56 to 128 | 84% | 71% | 52% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Montana Ham | R | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 68 | 55 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 97 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 48 |