AFLW · ROUND 6 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 5
SYD to win, 59% chance
PA 41%59% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 54% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 29% | 15% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 29% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 27% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |