AFLW · ROUND 6 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 5
SYD to win, 59% chance
PA 41%59% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Moloney | R | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.9 to 10.2 | 91% | 78% | 70% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 87% | 75% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 43% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 78% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 8.2 | 6.0 to 10.4 | 3.4 to 13.1 | 98% | 94% | 85% | 77% | 70% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 33% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 56% | 38% | 20% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |