AFLW · ROUND 6 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 15
WCE to win, 73% chance
STK 27%73% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 3.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 85% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.3 to 26.5 | 77% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.0 | 9.8 to 25.8 | 72% | 32% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 5.6 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 27.0 | 23.1 to 30.9 | 17.5 to 36.5 | 98% | 90% | 66% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | WL | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.5 to 25.3 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.6 | 8.8 to 24.3 | 66% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jaide Britton | FF | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lucia Painter | R | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | C | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sienna Gerardi | HFFL | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |