AFLW · ROUND 6 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 15
WCE to win, 73% chance
STK 27%73% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 3.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 83 | 69 to 97 | 48 to 118 | 73% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 69 | 56 to 82 | 37 to 102 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 64 | 51 to 77 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 66 to 142 | 94% | 85% | 73% | 56% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 118 |
| Isabella Lewis | WL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Lucia Painter | R | 65 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Jaide Britton | FF | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 53 | 41 to 65 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Isabella Shannon | C | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Sienna Gerardi | HFFL | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 55 |