AFLW · ROUND 6 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 15
WCE to win, 73% chance
STK 27%73% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 3.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 47% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 33% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucia Painter | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jaide Britton | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sienna Gerardi | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |