AFLW · ROUND 6 · RSEA PARK
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 15
WCE to win, 73% chance
STK 27%73% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 3.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 78% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 39% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 48% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Saoirse Lally | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 33% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lucia Painter | R | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 69% | 52% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jaide Britton | FF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | WL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | C | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Wakfer | FB | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 16% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sienna Gerardi | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Russo | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Belinda Smith | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Beth Schilling | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |