AFLW · ROUND 7 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 9
ADE to win, 64% chance
ADE 64%36% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 26.5 | 22.6 to 30.3 | 17.0 to 35.9 | 97% | 89% | 63% | 29% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.5 to 29.7 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.3 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.4 to 26.6 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ava Stewart | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 5.6 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.6 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 24.4 | 20.7 to 28.1 | 15.2 to 33.5 | 96% | 81% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 23.8 | 20.2 to 27.5 | 14.8 to 32.9 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.3 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 13.9 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Evie Parker | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |